mccannta Sports

Game 4 Rainout and Other Cardinal Blogs

Wednesday's night's Game 4 was a rainout in St. Louis. A cold and rainy night is forcast for Thursday night as well. I don't know if a day off is good or bad news for the Cardinals or if benefits either team at all. The Tigers don't need anymore rest, all they have been doing is resting lately. They certainly aren't pulling any muscles running the bases. In Game 3, batters 1 through 6 were a combined 0 for 18!

The rainout tonight gave me the opportunity to find some good St. Louis Cardinal blogs run by true fans. Check these out, they are well written and not lacking in heartfelt passion.

• Viva el Birdos In-depth writing and a huge readership. Eeex-cellent.
• Deadspin - A full sports site but lately, focused mainly on StL.
• CardNilly - Local site with good writing
• Bellyitcher - She got to go to the StL World Series party. Luck-eee
• The Birdwatch
• Get Up Baby
• Tigers Live - A Tigers blog from DFP reporter Bill McGraw.
• The Daily Fungo - Tigers MLB blog
• MLB World Series
• ESPN World Series - Da da-da, da da-da!
• Yahoo! World Series
• Fox Sports World Series
• St. Louis Post-Dispatch
• The Sporting News
• Sports Illustrated - Good writing with the best sports pics around

These are great resources for getting to know the game behind the game. From Kenny Rogers to miscalibrated radar guns to what the NLCS '06 ring looks like, these blogs and sites are excellent and worth a read.

Cardinals Not Lucky, They Are Good

An interesting phenomena is happening now that the Cardinals are up 2-1 in the World Series. Myriad sports writers and on-air commentators who, in lazy lock-step fashion announced the inevitable demise of the Cardinals, are now turning angry. Pressed to explain themselves and their simplistic predictions which are turning out dead wrong, they are now framing the World Series story line not in terms of the Cardinals great pitching or patient offense or veteran leadership from La Russa but in terms of the Tigers not executing or them being rusty from the long break (hmm, that sounds familiar...). Writer for Viva el Birdos, Larry Borowsky, writes in Slate about the major annoyance that St. Louis is even in the World Series, much less, leading the series two games to one.

How wrong were they? Consider the following examples of bravado and arrogance from USAToday. Writing a scouting report before Game 1, Bob Nightengale wrote of Detroit:

Placido Polanco is the Mr. October of middle infielders this postseason. He's batting .471 with a .514 on-base percentage...Curtis Granderson has been huge in the postseason, hitting three homers with seven RBI.

Nightengale topped-off the article by predicting the winner of the World Series. That he picked the Tigers is not important, it is how he picked the Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers' biggest obstacle to a championship will be keeping a straight face. The Tigers in three. (OK, make it four.)

I bet he thought he was really cute and creative in his prediction. In the real world, his Tigers are not quite the team he predicted they would be. Polanco, Granderson and catcher Ivan Rodriguez are a combined 0-34 going into Game 4. Pudge himself is 0 for his last 22. Bill McGraw noted that the top six hitters for Detroit went 0-18 in Game 3.

ESPN's analysts have shown no better talent at World Series divination. Consider the graphic to the right listing their combined predictions for the series. Only Ravech has the Cardinals winning. One wonders if he actually believed this or was there pressure from mgmt. for at least someone to pick the lowly Cardinals. Either way, I think he will end up being the smartest one (or the luckiest) of the whole bunch.

I guess with the attitude of fair and balanced, Nightengale also wrote scouting report for St. Louis:

The Cardinals' rotation is awfully weak for a World Series team, but hey, it at least was better than the Mets'. But Chris Carpenter has to pitch like Bob Gibson if the Cardinals are going to have any chance.

Nice segue, Mr. Nightengale. In fact, Chris Carpenter did pitch like Bob Gibson last night but that wasn't a flash-in-the-pan outing. His ERA at Busch this year was 1.81 and he is the reigning National League Cy Young winner. The New Hampshire native was masterful in Game 3 and affirmed in many minds that he is the preeminent National League pitcher. Tigers manager Jim Leyland, in an interview before Game 3 would not know how true his comments would turn out to be concerning Carpenter:

"Obviously he's one of the best pitchers in baseball," Leyland said. "He's a Cy Young winner. I have the utmost respect for him. ... Chris Carpenter is at the head of the class. He's an outstanding young man. He's a tremendous pitcher and tremendous competitor, and obviously we'll have our hands full."

How good was Carpenter? Bob Verducci wrote that it was "eight of the most efficient innings you'll ever find this time of year." Stan McNeil of TSN reports that "Carpenter never went to a three ball count with any of the 26 hitters he faced. ...He pitched six three-up, three-down innings and never threw more than 13 pitches in an inning."

As the media look to justify their botched predictions, why don't they concede that the Cardinals are a good baseball team and give them the respect they're due. They need to remember that the stumbling end-of-the-year Cardinals are also the Cardinals of late July. Their starting pitching is exceptional. Carpenter, Suppan and Weaver have been fantastic in the postseason and Anthony Reyes' win in Game 1 was astounding. ESPN writer Jayson Stark agrees: "In this World Series...the Cardinals pitchers have been the ones dictating how [the Tigers'] at-bats unfold. And nobody has confused the AL champs more than Chris Carpenter." The Cardinal bats are hitting now as well with offense coming from all through the lineup. The Cardinal bench, which has not had to be called upon is strong as well with Chris Duncan, Scott Spezio, Aaron Miles and So Taguchi.

Some writers are coming around and I applaud them for it. ESPN staff writer Gene Wojciechowski wrote yesterday evening that the same writers that never gave the Cardinals a chance now agree that they will win. He writes:

The Tigers should be winning this World Series. But the Cardinals are winning it because they remembered what they're good at, while the Tigers have been stricken by a memory lapse.

...The Cardinals aren't supposed to be in command, but then again, rookie starter Anthony Reyes wasn't supposed to win Game 1 for St. Louis. But he did. Then Carpenter won Game 3. Now, if Suppan wins Wednesday night, La Russa could keep the house money he won with Reyes, and pitch the more experienced Jeff Weaver on three days' rest for the potential Game 5 clincher.

UPDATE: More stories are reflecting the Cardinal turn of the tide. Amont others, see Ken Rosenthal's at Fox Sports and Mark Pesavento's at Yahoo!.

Cardinals Not World Series Underdogs

Conventional Wisdom has unanimously decided the St. Louis Cardinals don't have an American made automobile's chance to win the World Series. I'm not so sure.

For the sake of accountability I should admit that I am a life-long Cardinal fan, though a ex-patriot now residing in Southern California. But before you write this off as mindless ravings of a die-hard fan, consider my arguments for a fairly-balanced World Series.

Much too much has been made of the week's rest the Tigers are enjoying since their ALCS win over the Oakland Athletics last Saturday. Nearly everywhere on radio and TV and newspapers, commentators have trumpeted this as an obvious benefit. But in baseball, being well-rested from time off is not an advantage, it's a liability. The baseball season is long and teams play on average between 5 and 6 games a week. Players are used to playing every day. Over a 161-game season, players get used to this regularity and time off, though welcome to sore bones, is disruptive.

Extended time off screws with players timing defensively and at the plate. Batting practice can help batters stay sharp but BP pitching is not game-time pitching. Look for the Tigers to be a little rusty on defense and offense in the first two games.

Another casualty of this extended time off for Detroit will be the loss of momentum. The Tigers players and fans were riding high after their pummeling of Minnesota and Oakland. All the euphoria of last Saturday when the Tigers won the pennant has been squandered over the last 7 days. By contrast, St. Louis is still riding high on their exciting Game 7 NLCS victory Thursday night.

Extended time off for pitchers is also not good news. Pitchers are also used to pitching in a rotation and when they get out of that rhythm, their control is at risk. Time off for pitchers usually translates into pitches higher in the strike zone. It is tougher for rested pitchers to keep the ball low. When Tigers game 3 starter Nate Robertson takes the mound on Tuesday night in St. Louis, it will be his first start in 2 weeks. Good news for Cardinal sluggers Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. Unquestionably, one benefit the Tigers have with their time off is that they can choose their desired pitching rotation. This will allow Justin Verlander and Kenny Rogers to pitch twice, if needed.

Contrary to the media chorus reporting in unison the inevitable demise of the Cardinals, I think there are good reasons for picking a Cardinal win in the series. The Achilles heel for Cardinals for years, and even more so this season, has been their starting pitching.  Cardinals ace and last year's Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter has been good at 15-8 but not the 21 game winner of 2005. Jeff Suppan has also been better so-so in 2006 with his 12-7 record this year. Also the timely loss of veteran Mark Mulder, out with a left-shoulder injury and closer Jason Isringhausen for the rest of the season with a hip injury are not easy holes to fill.

Even so, the Cardinals are not the near-meltdown team that backed their way into the playoffs. They are hitting on all cylinders now and their shaky starting pitching has been solid, very solid. Jeff Weaver's two outings in the NLCS looked great. Though he lost game 1, he only threw one wrong pitch, a 2 run home-run to Carlos Beltran in the sixth, he looked good and in game 5, was phenomenal. With Carpenter and NLCS MVP Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver as starters and closer  was superb.  in the NLCS and even the shaky-to-say-the-least bullpen has been nearly unhittable (except for the NLCS game 4 rout).

The Cardinals are also a veteran team that has good post-season experience. Many of the foundational Cardinal players that went to the World Series in 2004 are back in 2006 (La Russa, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter, Suppan, Molina). The momentum of the Cardinals is strong and marquis players Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are hitting well as well as unsung players like Spezio and Molina are producing as well. Home field advantage resides with Detroit as games 1 & 2 and 6 & 7, if necessary, being played at Comerica Park in Detroit. Though the Cardinals only have to win one of the first two in Detroit to steal home field advantage as games 3, 4 & 5 are in the baseball crazy city of St. Louis in the inaugural season of the new Busch Stadium. Detroit fans are hungry for a World Series win but playing 3 straight games in Baseball City, USA will be a tough experience.

The Detroit Tigers are a very good team and will be difficult to beat. Verlander and Kenny Rogers are very tough but the Cardinals are just as good. With their pitching, great hitting, strong momentum and rabid fans, I predict the St. Louis Cardinals will win the 2006 World Series in 6 games. Though I stand virtually alone, only Deadspin, umpbump, and Dan Patrick from ESPN agree, I am sticking to my prediction. I can't wait...