Conventional Wisdom has unanimously decided the St. Louis Cardinals don't have an American made automobile's chance to win the World Series. I'm not so sure.
For the sake of accountability I should admit that I am a life-long Cardinal fan, though a ex-patriot now residing in Southern California. But before you write this off as mindless ravings of a die-hard fan, consider my arguments for a fairly-balanced World Series.
Much too much has been made of the week's rest the Tigers are enjoying since their ALCS win over the Oakland Athletics last Saturday. Nearly everywhere on radio and TV and newspapers, commentators have trumpeted this as an obvious benefit. But in baseball, being well-rested from time off is not an advantage, it's a liability. The baseball season is long and teams play on average between 5 and 6 games a week. Players are used to playing every day. Over a 161-game season, players get used to this regularity and time off, though welcome to sore bones, is disruptive.
Extended time off screws with players timing defensively and at the plate. Batting practice can help batters stay sharp but BP pitching is not game-time pitching. Look for the Tigers to be a little rusty on defense and offense in the first two games.
Another casualty of this extended time off for Detroit will be the loss of momentum. The Tigers players and fans were riding high after their pummeling of Minnesota and Oakland. All the euphoria of last Saturday when the Tigers won the pennant has been squandered over the last 7 days. By contrast, St. Louis is still riding high on their exciting Game 7 NLCS victory Thursday night.
Extended time off for pitchers is also not good news. Pitchers are also used to pitching in a rotation and when they get out of that rhythm, their control is at risk. Time off for pitchers usually translates into pitches higher in the strike zone. It is tougher for rested pitchers to keep the ball low. When Tigers game 3 starter Nate Robertson takes the mound on Tuesday night in St. Louis, it will be his first start in 2 weeks. Good news for Cardinal sluggers Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. Unquestionably, one benefit the Tigers have with their time off is that they can choose their desired pitching rotation. This will allow Justin Verlander and Kenny Rogers to pitch twice, if needed.
Contrary to the media chorus reporting in unison the inevitable demise of the Cardinals, I think there are good reasons for picking a Cardinal win in the series. The Achilles heel for Cardinals for years, and even more so this season, has been their starting pitching. Cardinals ace and last year's Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter has been good at 15-8 but not the 21 game winner of 2005. Jeff Suppan has also been better so-so in 2006 with his 12-7 record this year. Also the timely loss of veteran Mark Mulder, out with a left-shoulder injury and closer Jason Isringhausen for the rest of the season with a hip injury are not easy holes to fill.
Even so, the Cardinals are not the near-meltdown team that backed their way into the playoffs. They are hitting on all cylinders now and their shaky starting pitching has been solid, very solid. Jeff Weaver's two outings in the NLCS looked great. Though he lost game 1, he only threw one wrong pitch, a 2 run home-run to Carlos Beltran in the sixth, he looked good and in game 5, was phenomenal. With Carpenter and NLCS MVP Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver as starters and closer was superb. in the NLCS and even the shaky-to-say-the-least bullpen has been nearly unhittable (except for the NLCS game 4 rout).
The Cardinals are also a veteran team that has good post-season experience. Many of the foundational Cardinal players that went to the World Series in 2004 are back in 2006 (La Russa, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter, Suppan, Molina). The momentum of the Cardinals is strong and marquis players Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are hitting well as well as unsung players like Spezio and Molina are producing as well. Home field advantage resides with Detroit as games 1 & 2 and 6 & 7, if necessary, being played at Comerica Park in Detroit. Though the Cardinals only have to win one of the first two in Detroit to steal home field advantage as games 3, 4 & 5 are in the baseball crazy city of St. Louis in the inaugural season of the new Busch Stadium. Detroit fans are hungry for a World Series win but playing 3 straight games in Baseball City, USA will be a tough experience.
The Detroit Tigers are a very good team and will be difficult to beat. Verlander and Kenny Rogers are very tough but the Cardinals are just as good. With their pitching, great hitting, strong momentum and rabid fans, I predict the St. Louis Cardinals will win the 2006 World Series in 6 games. Though I stand virtually alone, only Deadspin, umpbump, and Dan Patrick from ESPN agree, I am sticking to my prediction. I can't wait...
Hey McCann, (no relation to Atlanta Brave Bryan McCann?) thanx for the link, and yes, in honor of my younger brother, as die-hard-a-fan of them Birds as you, I say Cardinals in 5.
Posted by: Alejandro Leal | Wednesday, 25 October 2006 at 05:51 AM